Will Nifty 50 touch 19500 in short term? Kya Bank Nifty me trend reversal ayega and new up trend start hoga. We are trying to analyze the current trend of Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty in this article.
This article is written in English and Hinglish also, so please try to read accordingly, and all views are my personal analysis only, that may differ from anyone else.
Nifty 50 current trend analysis
Nifty 50 ka overall trend bullish hai, jo ki June 2022 ke trend reversal se start hua hai, 15170 touch karke bounce karneke baad. Then 1st wave ka lo tha 16700 Oct 2022 me, high bana 18850 ka Dec 2022 me 2nd wave ka. And this 2nd wave ka low may be yehi tha 17300 ka Feb 2023 ka, and abhi ka short term down trend reverse ho raha hai.
Currently Nifty 50 ke chart me 9DEMA is trying to crossover 20DEMA and candles are above both the EMA. Nifty has bounced back from 0.618 Fib retracement level 17550, crossed 0.5 level 17800 and trying to cross 0.382 Fib level 18060, after touching it currently retesting both 9DEMA & 20DEMA at 17850-900. Nifty Already crossed previous low of 17800 and trying to cross previous swing high 18200. Once Nifty cross 18060 it is bullish and after crossing 18200 it will be in uptrend.
In case it could not cross 18200 and fall below 17800 then could retest 17600, 17400-300 and 0.786 Fib level 17200 below which this down trend will continue.
Bank Nifty current trend analysis
Nifty bank ne Corona kal ke bad high lagaya tha 37700 ka Feb 2021 me. Then fall hua aur corona se pehle ka high 32500 and previous high 30500 ko retest kiya Apr 2021 me. Then made new high 41700 ka Oct 2021 me. then start down trend up to 32200, jo ki previous corona time high ke pass tha. Jun 2022 ke baad down trend khatam hua and new uptrend start hua hai. 1st wave high lagaya Sep 2022 me which touched previous high 41700. Retrace from this touching previous high, Nifty bank ne previous all highs ko retest kiya upto 37500 and started bounce back in Oct 2022. Then 2nd wave of uptrend started.
New high 44250 touch kiya Dec 2022 me. Yahan se fall hua hai and previous high 41700 pe support lene ki kosis kiya but break down hua (due to Adani Group issue) and next swing high 39450 pe support liya and immediate bounce back hua. But previous low and previous swing high 41570 ka resistance face karke fall hua hai. 41570 ka level 9DEMA & 20DEMA bhi hai and 0.382 Fib retracement level bhi hai. Currently Nifty Bank 9DEMA 20DEMA ke niche hai, which is a bearish sign, and iss level se breakdown hua hai.
Currently below support is 40770, jo ki 0.5 Fib level, 39970 (0.618 fib level) and 39750 hai. Then 39200 & 38500 previous low ka support hai. Abhi down trend continue hai, once it cross 42000 then trend reversal ka sign milega.
This is my understandings about the overall current trend in the market. This helps me to take trades and deciding support and resistance levels, although I decide intraday support and resistances in 5 minute and 15 minute time frame and trade accordingly. But 1day time frame chart gives the actual trend of the market.
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